Price Forecasting Analysis of Coal Industry Structure Based on Coal Consumption and Economic Growth Big Data

Abstract

Coal as the core product of related enterprises, its price forecasting occupies an important position in the economic analysis of enterprises. This paper studies the relationship between coal consumption and China's economic growth, and provides data support for the structural adjustment of the coal industry by constructing a high-precision coal price prediction model, which in turn helps coal enterprises to optimise their economic decisions. Taking the Q5500 coal market price as the research object, this paper adopts the White Shark Optimisation Algorithm (WSO) to improve the Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM), and constructs the WSO-ILSTM prediction model. At the same time, it combines with wavelet transform denoising processing to improve the data quality, and carries out comparative analysis with GARCH model and original LSTM model to verify the prediction performance of the improved model. The experimental results show that the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the WSO-ILSTM model is significantly lower than that of other models in the 8-week prediction of the coal market price from August to September 2019, specifically, the prediction error of the WSO-ILSTM is lower than that of the LSTM and the GARCH model by about 20% or more. In addition, under the same training conditions, the average training time of WSO-ILSTM is 1,000 Epochs, while the traditional LSTM requires 1,500 Epochs.For the absolute value of prediction error, the average error of WSO-ILSTM is less than 0.5, which is significantly better than that of the GARCH (>1.5), suggesting that the WSO optimization strategy effectively enhances the prediction accuracy of LSTM. prediction accuracy.The WSO-ILSTM model shows high efficiency and accuracy in coal price prediction, which provides a new analytical tool for the study of the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth, and helps to support the economic decision-making and stable development of the coal industry.